With the Academy Awards coming up soon (on March 12), you’re likely wondering who will win, just like everyone else. However, there are ways to narrow down the potential winners by looking at past ceremonies.
While it may seem impossible to predict with complete accuracy, it is possible to determine which films are most likely to win the big awards, such as Best Picture, Directing, and the acting categories, by analyzing the history of the event. With this in mind, we’ve attempted to identify the probable winners, though it’s important to note that it’s simply a guideline and we cannot be held responsible if we’re incorrect.
Among the Best Picture nominees (All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, TÁR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking), Everything Everywhere All At Once appears to be the most likely winner due to its impressive performance in this year’s awards race, including winning the Producers Guild of America (PGA) Award for Best Theatrical Motion Picture.
Furthermore, the movie won the top honors at the Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards and the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, with an anticipated win at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards in the Original Screenplay category. However, the dark horse is All Quiet on the Western Front, which recently won at the BAFTAs.
You can check: 2023 Oscar Winners List
Best Picture is the only category with a preferential voting system, in which Academy members vote for their top five nominees, with the winner needing more than 50% of the first-place votes. If no film achieves this, the lowest-ranked nominee is eliminated, and the second-choice votes are used, continuing until a movie has more than 50%. Although Everything Everywhere All At Once could potentially be divisive among Oscar voters, All Quiet on the Western Front might receive more consistent rankings.
In the Directing category, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert of Everything Everywhere All At Once is the favorites to win, having won the Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film at the DGAs. While legendary filmmaker Steven Spielberg won at the Golden Globes, the duo beat him at the Critics’ Choice Awards, indicating their strong position.
The Actor in a Leading Role is likely a three-way race between Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), with Fraser having won at the Critics’ Choice Awards and the SAGs. However, since The Whale wasn’t nominated for Best Picture, Butler and Farrell are also strong contenders, and if Fraser doesn’t win, Butler is the most likely to take home the Oscar.
Nominees for Actress in a Leading Role include Cate Blanchett (TÁR), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once). While Blanchett has been winning numerous awards, including at the Critics’ Choice Awards, Golden Globes (Drama), and BAFTAs, her loss to Michelle Yeoh at the SAGs has made the race more uncertain.
Yeoh has also won at the Golden Globes (Musical/Comedy) and could potentially defy the odds and win at the Oscars. Actor Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once is the likely winner for Actor in a Supporting Role, having won at nearly every awards ceremony to date.
In the Actress in a Supporting Role category, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) is our hopeful pick to become Marvel’s first-ever acting winner at the Oscars, although Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) is currently the likely winner, with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) also in the running.