Oscar Predictions 2026: Who Will Win at the 98th Academy Awards?

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony takes place on March 15, 2026 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. The Oscar race has reached its final stretch with clear frontrunners emerging across most categories. Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” won the crucial Directors Guild of America award while Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” made history with a record-breaking 16 nominations.

Conan O’Brien returns as host for the second consecutive year. The ceremony airs live on ABC and streams on Hulu starting at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. Final voting opens February 26 and closes March 5.

Best Picture Predictions

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson’s film stands as the Best Picture frontrunner after sweeping nearly every major award. The film won the Directors Guild of America prize and this matters because 18 of the last 20 DGA winners went on to win Best Director at the Oscars. Anderson collected 32 directing wins this awards season compared to Ryan Coogler’s 19 wins.

The film swept all four major critics prizes including the National Board of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, New York Film Critics Circle and National Society of Film Critics. Only four films in history have achieved this feat. The last film to accomplish this and win Best Picture was “Schindler’s List” in 1993.

“One Battle After Another” earned 13 nominations including Best Picture and won at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. The momentum points toward Anderson finally winning his first Best Picture Oscar after years of nominations without victories.

Strong Contender: Sinners

Ryan Coogler’s supernatural thriller earned a record 16 nominations and broke the previous mark of 14 held by “Titanic,” “La La Land” and “All About Eve.” The film received the loudest applause at the Oscar nominees luncheon when Coogler’s name was announced. This enthusiastic response from Academy voters shows strong support across all branches.

“Sinners” was nominated in every category it competed for including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor for Michael B. Jordan and both screenplay and technical categories. Warner Bros. earned 30 total nominations between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another,” tying its own record set in 2005.

Other Contenders:

• Frankenstein (9 nominations)
• Marty Supreme (9 nominations)
• Hamnet (8 nominations)
• Sentimental Value (9 nominations)
• F1, Bugonia, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

Best Director Predictions

Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

Anderson won the DGA Award on February 7, 2026 and delivered an emotional speech honoring his late assistant director Adam Somner who passed away in November 2024. The DGA has predicted the Best Director Oscar winner 18 times in the last 20 years.

Anderson received his first DGA win after two prior nominations for “There Will Be Blood” in 2008 and “Licorice Pizza” in 2022. He has three previous Oscar nominations for Best Director without a win. The industry narrative of Anderson being “overdue” for recognition has built momentum throughout the season.

Leonardo DiCaprio presented Anderson with the DGA medallion. The win solidifies Anderson’s path to his first Oscar on March 15.

Competition:

• Ryan Coogler (Sinners) – First directing nomination
• Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) – Second woman nominated twice for directing, first woman of color
• Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) – First nomination
• Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) – Replaced Guillermo del Toro in Oscar lineup

Zhao made history as the second woman ever nominated twice for Best Director and the first woman of color to achieve this honor. She previously won for “Nomadland” in 2021.

Best Actor Predictions

Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

Chalamet dominated the Best Actor race after winning both the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy and the Critics Choice Award. He made history as the youngest actor to earn three acting nominations since Marlon Brando. At 30 years old, he would become the second-youngest Best Actor winner if he takes home the trophy.

His third nomination came for playing table tennis prodigy Marty Mauser in Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme.” Chalamet previously earned nominations for “Call Me by Your Name” in 2018 and “A Complete Unknown” in 2025. He is also nominated as a producer for “Marty Supreme” in Best Picture, making him the youngest actor to accomplish the acting-producing Oscar nomination double in the same year.

The momentum from precursor wins positions him as the frontrunner heading into final voting. Unless someone else wins at the Actor Awards or BAFTA, Chalamet remains in the lead position.

Competition:

Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) – The eight-time acting nominee and 2016 winner for “The Revenant” delivers a controlled and often comedic performance. His film’s 13 nominations signal enthusiasm across all branches.

Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) – Jordan earned his first Oscar nomination for playing dual roles as twins Smoke and Stack. The performance marks a full-circle moment as his first leading film role came 12 years ago in Coogler’s “Fruitvale Station.”

Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) – Won Best Actor at the Cannes Film Festival but the Academy historically hesitates to award non-English performances. The last non-English Best Actor winner was Roberto Benigni in 1998.

Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) – Third acting nomination after nods for “Training Day” and “Boyhood” but sits at the back of the pack.

Best Actress Predictions

Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Buckley has been the Best Actress frontrunner since September after winning the Golden Globe for Drama and the Critics Choice Award. She earned nominations from all four major precursors including SAG and BAFTA. Her performance as Agnes Shakespeare navigating grief after losing her son has been called the performance of the year.

The film “Hamnet” received 8 Oscar nominations which demonstrates strong Academy support. Buckley earned her second Oscar nomination after a nod for “The Lost Daughter” in 2022. Steven Spielberg serves as one of the producers on “Hamnet.”

BAFTA has correctly predicted both of Emma Stone’s Oscar wins. A Buckley victory there would solidify her status as the overwhelming favorite.

Competition:

Emma Stone (Bugonia) – The two-time Best Actress winner could join Frances McDormand and Katharine Hepburn as a three-time winner. At 37, Stone is now the youngest woman to garner seven Oscar nominations, breaking the record previously held by Meryl Streep.

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) – Won the Golden Globe for Musical/Comedy in her first Oscar nomination.

Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) – Returns to the Oscars 25 years after her “Almost Famous” nomination. Her mother Goldie Hawn has been hosting screenings and moderating Q&As in support.

Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) – International performance from Norwegian film with 9 nominations.

Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Predicted Winner: Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

The 74-year-old veteran actor won the Golden Globe and leads the race heading into final voting. His performance as an absentee father and formerly successful filmmaker seeking validation resonates with Academy voters. Skarsgård delivers the kind of introspective portrait that Oscar voters traditionally reward.

Skarsgård became the first Best Supporting Actor Oscar nominee for an international film. The fragmented precursor season with different winners across categories makes this race unpredictable.

Competition:

Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) – Won Critics Choice Award and could benefit from the film’s 9 nominations. At a young age, a win would anoint him as one of the industry’s biggest rising stars. His upcoming “Wuthering Heights” opens Valentine’s Day weekend.

Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) – Received strong applause at the nominees luncheon as a close runner-up to Ryan Coogler. Already has an Oscar for “Traffic” from over 20 years ago. Won in 2001.

Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) – Sixth acting nomination and two-time winner for “Mystic River” and “Milk.” Could split votes with del Toro from the same film. This marks his first nomination in the supporting category.

Delroy Lindo (Sinners) – First Oscar nomination at 72 years old despite missing major precursors. Delivered a memorable speech at the AAFCA Awards on Super Bowl Sunday accepting the Beacon Award.

The two actors from “One Battle After Another” could potentially cancel each other out and open the door for Skarsgård or Elordi to win.

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Predicted Winner: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

Taylor positioned herself as the clear frontrunner after winning the Golden Globe and landing nominations at all four major televised precursors. She is the only nominee in her category to achieve this feat. Her performance in the Best Picture frontrunner gives her additional momentum.

A win would make Taylor the 11th Black actress to win in this category and the third in the last five years. Her attachment to “One Battle After Another” paired with the excellence of her individual performance should secure the win.

Competition:

Amy Madigan (Weapons) – Won Critics Choice Award but remains the film’s sole nomination. Only five actors in the past 25 years have won as their film’s sole nominee. The last supporting actress to do so was Penélope Cruz for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” in 2008. Madigan set a record with her nomination coming 40 years after her first for “Twice in a Lifetime.” The gap ties Helen Hayes for the longest between nominations for actress in Oscar history.

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) – First Oscar nomination but precursor history prevents a real shot at winning.

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) – Also from the Norwegian film competing alongside Fanning.

Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) – Benefits from the film’s record 16 nominations.

Taylor’s sweep of major precursors makes her the actress to beat unless Madigan can pull off a surprise victory at the Actor Awards.

Best Original Screenplay Predictions

Predicted Winner: Sinners (Ryan Coogler)

Coogler appears likely to win his first Oscar for writing “Sinners” even if the film doesn’t take home Best Picture or Best Director. The supernatural Southern Gothic vampire tale set in 1930s Mississippi showcases Coogler’s original voice and storytelling ability.

The film broke the record for most Black individuals nominated for a single film at ten. Coogler joins a lineage of Black screenwriters nominated for original screenplay. Jordan Peele remains the only Black winner in this category for “Get Out.”

Competition:

• Marty Supreme (Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie)
• Sentimental Value (Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier)
• Blue Moon (Robert Kaplow)
• It Was Just an Accident (Jafar Panahi with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian)

Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Anderson adapted his screenplay from Thomas Pynchon material and looks poised to win this category as part of a potential sweep. The film’s 13 nominations and DGA win signal strong support across the Academy.

“One Battle After Another” won the USC Scripter Award for adapted screenplay in late January 2026.

Competition:

• Hamnet (Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell)
• Frankenstein (Guillermo del Toro)
• Train Dreams (Clint Bailey and Greg Kwedar)
• Bugonia (Will Tracy)

Best Animated Feature Predictions

Predicted Winner: KPop Demon Hunters

The Netflix phenomenon won both the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe. The film became a cultural sensation with its trio of demon-fighting K-pop stars. The soundtrack featuring the Oscar-eligible song “Golden” amassed 8.3 billion streams.

KPop Demon Hunters is Netflix’s most-watched original film of all time with 325 million global views. A sing-along version made $18 million in theaters over a two-day period in August. Mattel and Hasbro announced a merchandising deal with action figures and games hitting stores in 2026.

Strong Competition: Zootopia 2

Disney’s sequel crossed $1.5 billion at the global box office. The Academy traditionally shows skepticism toward sequels. Only “Toy Story 3” and “Toy Story 4” have won Best Animated Feature as sequels.

The original “Zootopia” won the Academy Award in 2017 but lost the BAFTA to “Kubo and the Two Strings.” The sequel’s massive box office success could influence voters.

Other Nominees:

• Arco (French sci-fi film from director Ugo Bienvenu with producer Natalie Portman)
• Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (Charming coming-of-age animated film)
• Elio (Pixar film that underperformed at box office with $154 million worldwide)

Best International Feature Predictions

Predicted Winner: Sentimental Value (Norway)

The race comes down to statistics versus passion. Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama landed 9 nominations including Best Picture, Director, Actress, two Supporting Actress slots, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Editing and International Feature. That level of cross-branch support matters in the era of full-Academy final voting.

The screenplay nomination serves as a reliable marker for non-English language winners. Recent champions like “The Zone of Interest,” “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Drive My Car,” “Parasite” and “Roma” all had screenplay nominations.

Strong Competition: The Secret Agent (Brazil)

Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian thriller earned four nominations including Best Picture, Best Actor for Wagner Moura and Best Casting. Early wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice provided momentum.

BAFTA serves as the crucial signal. A win for “Sentimental Value” would reinforce its statistical edge. A BAFTA victory for “The Secret Agent” would suggest industry support is consolidating elsewhere.

Other Nominees:

• It Was Just an Accident (France) – Jafar Panahi film
• Sirât (Spain) – Óliver Laxe film
• The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) – Kaouther Ben Hania film

Neon nearly swept this race taking four of the five slots. For the eighth consecutive year, at least one non-English language film has been nominated for Best Picture.

Best Documentary Feature Predictions

Predicted Winner: The Perfect Neighbor

Geeta Gandbhir’s documentary won the DGA Award for documentary feature. The film won Critics Choice but faces the “Critics Choice curse” where winners in this category often miss the Oscar nomination.

Compiled using body cam and ring footage, “The Perfect Neighbor” follows the dispute between one neighbor and an entire neighborhood that culminates in a horrific death. The film represents a true crime documentary that became a cultural moment.

If “The Perfect Neighbor” wins, it would mark a significant change in how the Documentary Branch views nonfiction films entirely comprised of archival footage. The branch has historically shown disdain for archival footage films.

Competition:

Mr. Nobody Against Putin – Film about activism against Vladimir Putin

The Alabama Solution (HBO) – Andrew Jarecki documentary

Come See Me in the Good Light – Ryan White documentary

Cutting Through Rocks – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni film

All five 2026 Best Documentary Feature nominees premiered at Sundance 2025. Director Mstyslav Chernov, who won two years ago for “20 Days in Mariupol,” returns as a potential contender.

Technical Categories Predictions

Best Cinematography

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another (Michael Bauman)

Bauman won the British Society of Cinematographers award. The cinematography race traditionally follows a three-way test between BSC, BAFTA and ASC. History says two of three usually reveal the path.

Strong Competition: Sinners (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)

Durald Arkapaw made history as the first woman of color nominated for Best Cinematography. A win would be even more historic as no woman has ever won this category. She became the first Filipino woman nominated.

Other Nominees:

• Frankenstein (Dan Laustsen)
• Marty Supreme (Darius Khondji)
• Train Dreams (Adolpho Veloso)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

The film editing race often aligns with Best Picture. “One Battle After Another” as the frontrunner benefits from this pattern.

Nominees:

• F1
• Marty Supreme
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners

Best Sound

Predicted Winner: F1

The car racing film’s immersive sound design positions it as the favorite. Won Critics Choice Award for sound.

Nominees:

• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sirât

Best Original Score

Predicted Winner: Sinners (Ludwig Göransson)

Göransson won the Society of Composers and Lyricists Award for the “Sinners” score. The film doesn’t work without the music which makes this his likely third Oscar. He previously won for “Black Panther” and “Oppenheimer.”

Nominees:

• Bugonia (Jerskin Fendrix)
• Frankenstein (Alexandre Desplat)
• Hamnet (Max Richter)
• One Battle After Another (Jonny Greenwood)

Best Original Song

Predicted Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Songwriters EJAE, IDO, Teddy Park, Mark Sonnenblick and 24 won the Society of Composers and Lyricists Award. The song topped Billboard charts and became a Grammy-nominated anthem.

Nominees:

• “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner)
• “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (Diane Warren’s 17th nomination)
• “I Lied To You” from Sinners (Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq)
• “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from Viva Verdi! (Nicholas Pike)

Diane Warren has never won despite 17 nominations except for an honorary award in 2022. This year she’s nominated for a song she wrote for a documentary about herself.

Best Production Design

Predicted Winner: Frankenstein

Guillermo del Toro’s Gothic works showcase lush and grand production design. Tamara Deverell’s intricate production design captures Mary Shelley’s story in spectacular fashion.

Nominees:

• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners

Best Costume Design

Predicted Winner: Frankenstein (Kate Hawley)

Won the Costume Designers Guild Award. The Gothic costumes designed for the film are visually stunning.

Competition:

Ruth E. Carter (Sinners) – Her fifth Oscar nomination makes her the most-nominated Black woman in Oscar history across any category. She won twice for “Black Panther” films.

Other Nominees:

• Avatar: Fire and Ash (Deborah L. Scott)
• Hamnet (Malgosia Turzanska)
• Marty Supreme (Miyako Bellizzi)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Winner: Frankenstein

Prosthetic designer Mike Hill’s transformation of Jacob Elordi into the Creature represents the kind of work this category was designed to honor.

Nominees:

• Kokuho
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• The Ugly Stepsister

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

James Cameron’s latest Avatar film brings cutting-edge visual effects. The original “Avatar” received nine Oscar nominations and won three. The sequel “The Way of Water” earned four nominations and won one.

Nominees:

• F1
• Jurassic World Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

Best Casting (New Category)

Predicted Winner: Sinners (Francine Maisler)

The 2026 Oscars debuts Best Casting as the 24th competitive category. Maisler assembled the “Sinners” ensemble including Miles Caton in his acclaimed debut role. She is a legend in her field who has worked with directors like Adam McKay, Aaron Sorkin, Barry Jenkins and Denis Villeneuve.

Nominees:

• Hamnet (Nina Gold)
• Marty Supreme (Jennifer Venditti)
• One Battle After Another (Cassandra Kulukundis)
• The Secret Agent (Gabriel Domingues)

Short Film Categories Predictions

Best Documentary Short Film

Predicted Winner: All the Empty Rooms

Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones’ Netflix documentary about victims of school shootings leads the race. The film’s timely subject matter and emotional impact position it as the frontrunner.

Strong Competition: The Devil is Busy

Geeta Gandbhir (also nominated for feature documentary “The Perfect Neighbor”) and Christalyn Hampton’s HBO documentary follows Tracii, the head of security at an Atlanta women’s healthcare clinic. The film addresses reproductive rights in America.

Other Nominees:

• Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud (HBO) – SXSW Audience Award winner about a war correspondent killed in Ukraine
• Children No More: Were and Are Gone (Sky) – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins documentary
• Perfectly a Strangeness – Canadian film, rare Cannes official selection following three donkeys at an observatory

Best Live Action Short Film

Predicted Winner: The Singers

Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt’s Netflix short about men at a pub connecting through spontaneous singing competition.

Other Nominees:

• Butcher’s Stain (Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi)
• A Friend of Dorothy (Lee Knight and James Dean)
• Jane Austen’s Period Drama (Julia Aks and Steve Pinder)
• Two People Exchanging Saliva (Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata) – French short narrated by Vicky Krieps

Best Animated Short Film

Predicted Winner: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski’s stop-motion fable from Montreal’s National Film Board of Canada leads in this category.

Other Nominees:

• Butterfly – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens film about Jewish-French swimmer Alfred Nakache
• Forevergreen
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

You may also check: Oscar Winners List 2025

FAQs About Oscar Predictions 2026

The 2026 Oscar race points toward Paul Thomas Anderson finally winning his first Best Director and Best Picture Oscars for “One Battle After Another” on March 15. The DGA win and sweep of major critics prizes create overwhelming momentum.

Timothée Chalamet appears positioned to win his first Best Actor Oscar while Jessie Buckley leads Best Actress. The supporting categories favor Stellan Skarsgård and Teyana Taylor. “Sinners” will likely collect multiple technical awards despite its record 16 nominations.

KPop Demon Hunters looks set to win Best Animated Feature while “Sentimental Value” has the edge in Best International Feature.